dimanche, décembre 08, 2013

Samba corruption... the hangover

This post is the sequel of the Samba corruption post I released a couple of days ago where I might have seemed categoric and full of preconceived ideas. But it was only one side of the story. As for every news, as soon as you read it is already both wrong and history fact. I encourage every one to listen to the country and hear all the voices that speak, from facebook, twitter, blogs and newspapers. What remains is a baseline of hope that brazilians are through with corruption, country of low education, high corruption where the money is invested poorly when not kept safe abroad for personal wealth. Things are changing, brazilians are demanding and they want professionalism instead of cheap magic and smoke curtains. I saw this news (in Portuguese) saying that, finally, the game of power from Globo seems over. I was having a discussion with my wife trying to understand how a TV channel could over the years and with the globalization stay always so dominant. Well I read this article and got the answer. I translated it in english for a larger audience to have a grasp of what happened and understand that things, in Brazil, are changing and fast.

The above link, translated in english:

There are many signs showing that the crisis that has developed in the Botanical Garden is here to stay . Growing rumors that the company will not be able to honor payroll and expenses in 2014 and therefore commissioned a study of cuts, mainly in wages paid to actors. For the first time in history, Globo has a manager in charge that came from journalism and used to lower production costs . He was astonished at what he saw in Globo Productions, expenses that go well beyond industry standards. 

And the deviations ?

" There must be a lot of corruption," says a veteran who has held management positions, " One imagines that there is overpricing , things that work well for years . And if he stirs it up there he might fall" he concludes . As we know that the string always bursts from the weaker side, hardly budget cuts will affect the best actors, but the intermediate wages and little thieves as the banks that " deviate clip and elastic". But the fact is that bleeding trigger leaks, raw material for any journalist will never be put in defect in 2014 . After all " In a house where the bread is missing, everybody fights and nobody is right". 

And what's behind this "phenomenon " ? 

A significant drop in sales! Hardly able to keep the Globe BV, the volume bonuses, paid to advertising agencies whenever she concentrates ads on the same channel. The reason ? Less audience. There is no argument that proves the owner that the maintenance of a national campaign in a broadcaster is advantageous, if she does not take the message to the public that it promises. Globo is therefore facing a huge impasse like never seen before . 

But why the audience falls so fast ? 

Analysts polled by this blog say it is time to " review indexes " . The announcement that the competing TV stations just hire another institute to make measurements - using even more meters - is forcing Ibope , which has always been "from the house " , to review its " methodology " . 

Not new, isn't it? 

Any time data is questioned . Since the defunct TV Manchete, of Bloch, who in the '90s challenged Globo's fields where she boasted of having more competence : soap opera and major television news coverage , such as Carnival . At the end of the same decade , another competitor also accused Ibope of manipulation: SBT. Silvio Santos came to ban the audience meter of his station , a sign that did not trust the numbers. But not if none of the cases Globo agencies and TV Globo were concerned. 

What has changed ? 

Recently TV Record thickened the chorus , accusing Ibope of consolidating their numbers down and the competitor station up. That's what finally triggered the search for a more independant system of measurement. Finally was created a culture broth necessary to question the ethics of the competitive practice of Marinho's channel.

But this is only one side of the crisis? 

Yes, it really is " picking " on their side is that for the first time there is no political support from older times . From time to time, the station is also under fire from social networks . Their actions and their methods are questioned all the time .

The signal chickened when?

In June , a crowd of protesters decided to march toward the company's subsidiary in São Paulo on the Cable-Stayed Bridge , new postcard of the city , shouting slogans against the manipulation and the monopoly exercised by the group . " That created enormous instability.We stayed inside afraid of invasion and vandalism" said one official, who was required to wait after hours for the crowd to disperse before leaving the building that night . 

And do not stop there ... 

Everyone remembers that renowned journalists began to be harassed during covering, cars vandalized and torched, reports aborted for safety and a huge effort had to be made in the months after to try to rescue the image and confidence of the channel. But the damage was already done . Today , the station is treated with hatred. Their news lost credibility nor the recent game of chairs implemented worked. 

And friendly fire ? 

Fátima Bernardes and Zeca Camargo left for line shows, which for Globo Production was another sign that journalism progresses on schedule. Result: boycotts . Is difficult to work in some programs , which became the target of friendly fire or internal competition . Another destabilizing factor . 

But that is nothing 

The blow was the scandal of the offshore banks accounts to evade tax authorities. Estimated debt with penalty and interest came to be a billion dollars . That's right , one billion, all audited , documented , judged, condemned , but not paid because of spectacular actions, which involved bribery , theft of public faith document , blackmail , intimidation and even exchange of gunfire , that elicited a typical modus operandi of the best scripts of the films shown in Prime Time. Some maintain that the broadcaster has bought stolen documents from the IRS and to recover the document on the day of the sale, they had forged a policeman striking to send a TV crew to cover the event . 

Any signs of cooling dow?

It seems that this time , however there are still some political action in Brasilia , the order is moving  the process forward . " Let Globo Bleed " was the mantra as it is sung in Bossa Nova very softly , an allusion to the celebrated declaration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso to Tucanos chiefs , during the Mensalão scandal and the possibility of impeachment of President Lula . Even today the process that pilfered Revenue " has not showed up ." But it is one of the best campaign and blackmail dossiers around the block. 

This weakens the image of the Brothers 

To appear smiling in photos that illustrated the news that today they sum up one of the greatest wealth of the country , the Marinho brothers also contribute nothing to improve the image of the company. In an unjust and unequal country like ours , the news has a devastating effect on the image of the conglomerate . The public begins to think , albeit empirically , that they are the typical white-collar criminals . People who attend the social columns , " detached " , celebrities , but not worth , in the jargon of the class walking train " a sour pot " . 

With a combination of these , what to expect ?

With the words of our worshiped Marcos Valle : 
Today is a new day
Of a new time that begins
From these new days
the joys will be for all
All we need is wanting
All our dreams will come true
The future has already begun ... 

Sought without much interest in knowing its opinion , I admit, the broadcaster would not comment 

Thank you

vendredi, novembre 29, 2013

Samba Corruption

It took me a while to issue this post. I would like to issue it now because I think it is on the verge of being obsolete and that's an amazing news (or I hope so... the obsolescence ^_^).


The most worrying problem (to my own sense) Brazil is currently facing is corruption. I will probably state the obvious here but corruption takes your management resources,  drive your country away from productivity and has the tendency to tire the populations. I remember once I was talking to a friend of mine from Ivory Coast in 2000's something over a laundry machine in Paris (a lot happen when you go clean your clothes). He was explaining me how friends of his had worked a lot to make money in Paris and then went back to IvC to open a shop... real entrepreneurial endeavour. Arriving there they spent away all their investment in small "payments" to help their store opining process which eventually never happened.  Small corruption had eaten all the money away. You can understand that it does not only happened to that person and this non regulated government is participating to the decadence of the country (I love to blame the government ^_^). Well in Brazil you can find something similar and after years in the country I believe it has helped to lower the economy growth from what it should have been. I can see three main corruption schemes:

- Something equally dangerous to generalized small corruption that is called patrimonialism: you earned a position thanks to your birth line before your competences. Brazil is full of it and example flows (family Sarney, sons of ex-president Lula and many more). Even if everybody knows, it is big enough for all these people to walk away in impunity.

- Which drives me to the second plague: impunity of crimes (like the case of the -now solved- Mensalão). Not only for corruption cases but for all sort of criminal offences. I remember when I first came to Brazil I realized the price of life was not the same as in Europe. You get into trouble and you die for quite stupid reasons here (traffic issue, stressed out robber, lost bullet if you are near dangerous favelas...). Your assailant has good chance to disappear unharmed and uncharged for his crimes. The country is big and there is enough place to hide but that's not new. Justice is slow for charging criminals and your social origin is a factor to get things resolved. The late case of the foreign girl raped in a minibus is a typical example of social factor for crime resolution as it had happen before to local favela girls (same criminals) but when this American victim hit the tabloids the case was solved in a week. So if you want to keep on your criminal activity better keep low profile and only hassle the locals! So when big money is "lost", construction projects overpriced,  social fundings hijacked for private purpose by the time the justice is on the case the money has vanished and the criminals already seeked out their protection. How not to want to steal when your own head of state are robbing the country? That blurs with patrimonialism and race issues, but here is an exposed example showing that they are wanting to end with the trends. Rio de Janeiro is very representative of that kind of corruption.
- That brings me to the carioca factor, things happen else where in Brazil and not in Rio (the Alphaville complex never settled in Rio before 2011 and it is a national brand, but from São Paulo!) or the contrary. Something that has to do with the "carioca spirit" of the city, "o jeitinho carioca", gives you the feeling there is no other way to do or organize something than their way. When you arrive in Rio for carnival all is shiny,  beautiful and well organized. After a while you start to explore more the city, the state and you realize it is messy and absolutely not optimised financially. All that money disappearing isn't used for education,  health or public transport so everything is going overpriced because there is not enough qualified people,  hence not enough wealth produced but more people wanting to consume. Very recently the case of an abuse of public resources to private ends splashed at the governor of Rio de Janeiro state during the June protests and it is an actual sign of changing mentalities (which will be debated on a later post). That is only a representative example showing that it could and should be better but the head of the organization is not interested to improve for not knowing better.

mardi, novembre 05, 2013

Brain drain 2.0

Courtesy of JISC infonet
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/topics/moocs/
The MOOCs, or Massive Online Open Courses, is said to be a new way to get knowledge without having to dislocate from where you are. It is free or cheap, and dispensed by reknown universities (Havard, Stanford, MIT). I see a clear continuation of an American culture that started during the second WW: the brain drain,  or importing foreign innovative minds to work in and for the USA. By creating these courses they found a way to identify the best brains from all over the World, even before they go to the university. You just need a cyber-cafe with an average internet connection. You never change a good system do you?

Trip down to memory lane

There's not much about energy here, more about where it all came from and how did I come to be who I am today professionally.  My old university shaped the way I started to work and I really got that macro vision of the world while studying there. I got to visit my old coordinators; well, I went to se their desks but due to a damn strike they decided to work from home! I hate strikes!!! (Put a link of swearing Don from how not to live your life). I am remembering all my buddies I used to go to places with around the uni. Number 5 was one of them,  I have lots of nice memories here. Liverpool really transformed itself into a neat city, though the dptnt of chemistry did not change much. Messy as ever apart from the hall that looks fresh. I feel the loneliness of the memory lane too, everybody is gone so I am left with nothing here. Still coming back makes me want to stay. UK is amazing to get to you with the completely controled way of life. People almost dont attend to where they walk, what they do. Some students are really dressed like crazy now (I saw a jananim addict, and a vampire fan going down the hall in white make up like it was normal). In 10 years time it's going to be even funnier. Come to think of it it was Halloween so that was most probably why, but party dress during the day is extreme (ish).
The only energy related point I could think of now is the fact that nowadays in the UK the moto is energy saving, when you look at daily life and urban organization. Also I took the bus and paid 2.10£ a ticket, I wonder how that would translate in brazilian lifestyle? What I mean by this is when you look at a minimum wage, price of the basic food basket in each country,  is it more expensive in UK than in Brazil? If Brazil manage to increase its efficiency in manufacturing,  will it come to UK's point eventually?
The picture was taken from "number 5", famous classy student bar  where I use to hang around with my buddies from all over.

vendredi, octobre 18, 2013

An expensive country to live in

I saw yesterday an announcement saying that the PS4 Brazil edition (Sony)  is the most expensive worldwide. Why is that? It is well over twice the US price so it's cheaper to fly to the US and buy it there (which they know). One thing I realized when I checked the distribution of IP filled in the country: on top of being the lowest of the BRICS countries,  80% of IP filled is non-resident. Now I'm going to debunk that briefly for those who are not familiar with IP notion.
IP (intellectual property) is a protection of an idea, it's the patent (all the buzz from Apple for example,  patenting anything that moves within the office!). When the IP filled in a given country is non-resident it means that whoever filled it is fiscally based in the country but the country of origin is foreign.  It might not even be compulsory to have a fiscal HQ in Brazil to fill in for IP. So what is patented in Brazil is technology from abroad applied in Brazil. As there is too few brazilian innovation it keeps competition away. Now companies are using the consumism habit brazilian got since money started to flow and price their items as high as brazilian would allow it to. Now that would have probably worked without the innovation, but it kills the innovation spirit in Brazil and force the country into a foreign innovation dependant consumism. That is dangerous for technology independance.

Now that is only one aspect. I probably should mention that the country needs 200000 more engineers to function properly.
There is a lack of proper logistical infrastructure, no train, only air, sea and roads. It create delays in delivery when there is a delivery (trucks have accidents). Roads are overloaded, dangerous and not maintained. So for example farmers can loose entire production when the transport is not coming in time to pick up the goods (price increase reduction in efficiency for the same amount of goods products).
The Value added per brazilian inhabitants is half of USA inhabitants,  logically the price follow an opposite tendance.
Brazilian production has not increased since the 90's but consumption of good increased dramatically since the middle class exploded.
Moreover the government applies importation taxes in the name of protectionism but nothing is done to increase the national production (to be fair there are actions taken but it started this year only).
So to conclude this, yes Brazil is one expensive country to live in.

mardi, octobre 15, 2013

Big Oil is the only one to effectively set up a carbon tax

I have been quite active in reading the advancement on carbon dioxide management and plans to emission reduction. To resume we can compare it to a tide, moving back and forth but always staying at the shore; in a word: status quo!
Now my analysis of that never-ending story of "let us go forward!" and then "errr na, finally we keep on hiding" was that governments were either too short-term focused or too powerless to move forward and that the environment issues would be embraced by the industries as a survival reflex from an observation that in the long term they would not survive the changes Humans force into Mother Earth. (digression) An ecologically stable Earth is much more profitable to a healthy economy in the long term (end of digression).
I already saw some moves made by the Oil and Gas industries starting to be really concerned, simply because (this time thanks to the governments) environmental accidents could potentially be financially unbearable. A couple of months ago I saw on the news that the proper OPEC is preparing to enforce a tax on Oil consumption. Governments are currently on heavy back-down of CCS projects, when not shut down (^-^) and on the contrary private sector is growing more independent due to internationalization (e.g. staying in the US to re-inforce the contrast, US is to become the first oil producer in 2014, thanks to unconventional production). No wonder that this idea I emulated almost a year ago but I never could quite finish (lack of time) is already been voiced out loud.
To conclude in a light note, Daniel C Bennet in many of his books explains how an idea or a meme is like a Been which purpose is to reproduce and survive (the original expression of the meme before the internet took it over as some funny-ish images cartooning your feelings of a particular event). A bit like a virus: protein shell, single DNA string invading your body to reproduce and move forward to another one. It can also create some physiological disturbances (if the idea is a strong one!!). I guess the idea I am mentioning in this post is a good example.

mercredi, juin 26, 2013

Coal energy isn't quite dead yet

We talk about Big oil and how we are suffocating with the O&G industry... seems that coal has been doing quite good since Germinal and is not showing a down pacing at all. See for yourself:
This infografics is taken from MIT Technology Review. I do not have any credit on it.

lundi, juin 24, 2013

(Lost) energies

Lately there has been quite a lot of protests in Brazil against a lot of things, amongst them is better quality of (health) services and cheaper bus fares... but not only. End of corruption in the government was part but it was felt that there a general anger in the brazilian citizen seeing its own energy been wasted in useless things.
Take that colleague of mine working in the HR department: she is a graduating student in administration and works in my building. I'll describe her day as best as I can:
- 4h30: wake up for the working day
- 5h30: takes the bus to work
- 7h00: starts her working day
- 17h30: end of working day
- 19h00: starts university
- 22h00: ends university
- 23h30: arrives home (average 30min before or after)
If you add the dinner she gies to bed (at best) at 00h30 meaning she sleeps 4h max a night... all week.
That is not a particular example but a general trend in Brazil due to bad organization coupled with bad traffic and lack of bus routes. She could start her working day later but cant because the most direct route for her is that early and that late. We finish the working day at 4pm but she cannot go home because she would not have time to go back to university.
To conclude I would say she is spending a huge amount of energy to go through the day when that coyld be avoided by better city organization... one of Brazil's biggest issue and definitely one of brazilian's underlying protests

lundi, juin 03, 2013

European youth unemployment: nowhere near 25 per cent

This article is straight from FT.com, but I am not sure whether or not it will stay at the same link, pass into the subscriber zone or whatever, therefore I decided to import it to my blog. I do not have any credits in this one, I just found it so relevant! You can find it in this link, it has links to other related articles too.

Youth unemployment is a hot topic at the moment. Both the OECD and the UN have warned that the spiralling rates across many advanced economies will have severe consequences. Nearly a quarter of European under-25s are now unemployed, the latest reported figures show. And concerns reached a new pitch last week when it was revealed that Italian youth unemployment had topped 40 per cent. But are these figures really all they are cracked up to be? My colleague James Mackintosh was spot-on when he Tweeted last week that youth unemployment figures are meaningless without understanding what proportion of a country’s young people are economically active. This vital bit of information leads to quite a different picture on youth unemployment across Europe. The point was also well-made last year by Alan Beattie – but it’s worth re-visiting. Here are the raw unemployment rates, as you might see reported in some places:


 They look pretty bad, right? Over 50 per cent in Greece and Spain, 40 per cent in Italy and Portugal. But wait a minute. Unemployment figures only reflect the proportion of the population who are economically active – i.e looking for a job, but who are unable to find one. Among young people in particular, inactivity rates can be expected to be very high – many are in either education or training. What do the figures look like if we take into account the economically inactive population? Far less bad, actually, even with the caveat that some individuals will go into training or educations because of the lack of jobs.


 So, are nearly a quarter of European young people unemployed? No. Fewer than 10 per cent are.

All credits go to Kate Allen.


Worlwide electricity consuption

There is this link to a map that Shell and National Geographics are showing that is quite nice.
For a little while now Shell is on a teasing mission with the public in general and the technical public. Could it be to have them being prefferred by public opinion or taking some interesting ideas from the mass and patent it I do not know yet. Nevertheless that source of information is quite interesting. Confer the website!

jeudi, mai 30, 2013

Carbon Capture and Storage Worlwide Map: in Brazil, nada!

One of the poor conclusion you can make when you look at CCS WW map: In South America, Russia and greatest part of Africa, no CCS. The latter is understandable since they have the lowest energy consumption. Now Russia? Brazil? India? South Africa? Where are the BRICS?
See the link here to a google map.

mardi, mai 21, 2013

First duty of intelligence: the obvious




An article from MIT's Kevin Bullis has been quite reposted and mashed, I end up doing the same  ^_^.
The statement is the follow:
Siemens says it would make sense to build solar power plants in sunny countries in Europe rather than in cloudy ones. And wind turbines should be built in windy places.

These blindingly obvious suggestions run contrary to what’s actually happening. For example, a solar panel in Spain generates about twice as much electricity as the same-size solar panel in Germany
The following graph is a good representation of what happens and (by way of consequence) what could be done to optimize the use of current resources in Europe:
http://www.siemens.com/press/pool/de/pressebilder/2013/energy/300dpi/E201305035-02e_300dpi.jpg

Spot on!

War on (water) terror

Asia-Pacific leaders warn of water conflict threat | Rio+20: Climate - Water - Ecology - People and Sustainability | Scoop.itTwo disturbing news that confirms a trend that water will overwhelm energy as the next tension maker of the international politic landscape. A conflict threat over water in the Asia-Pacific region and more regional is a tension threat over a river running between the two main economical states of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo for water supply. Regionally and internationally we can see growing tensions over water resources for irrigation, fishery or simple fresh water resource for local population. Climate change is not helping re-drawing the water distribution and industries are entering the game of water utilization exploring the law gaps for their own interest. Ever since China took over Tibet 50 years ago and decided not to release control over it for no other motives that Tibet is the water font of most of the Chinese provinces.

samedi, mai 18, 2013

"Inside Job" with an economist driving me through

I did wait a long time I confess to watch that movie (you can check their facebook page too), problem is, I could probably not understand it as best as I did a couple of days ago if I did not watch it with my wife. Inside Job is "how we fucked up for the 6th time but this time it really hurt people" and "by the way we didn't get hurt so we might do it again". The way the famous top 1% is so far away from reality that they feel they are above the law, and it would not be normal otherwise. It's game of throne all over, except you reign over people's wallet (so you reign over them too) but nobody knows you're the King until you hit the news for fraud (or major economic breakdown). Inside job is a good documentary that tells you you should not entrust anyone with your money if you cannot see physically where you apply it. I found the movie to be a sequel of "Bowling for Columbine" in the way events where depicted and how they interviewed their guests. Don't be fooled though, it is a documentary, with a message in mind. They did the movie edition to keep their message all through the documentary so it's as powerful as you want it to be. What I gained from this documentary is that I need to know more of economics and finances in general so that I don't get hurt and that I need to document myself more about this crisis to understand what really happened. There is the romanticised version of the crisis HBO film "Too Big To Fail" where you can see more of it and temper the documentary. One big missing element on "inside job": the absence of Paul Krugman and his position on the crisis. Or (and I need to thank my wife for driving me through) on the contrary the documentary was completely following Krugman's line of thoughts.

mardi, avril 16, 2013

A new use for tabacco leaves


How to quit smoking without posing a threat to the tobacco industry (already in the decline!!):



mercredi, avril 03, 2013

Brazil immigration booming

According to a source there are more foreigners in Brazil than brazilian abroad for the first time ever!!
The source says the number of people moving to Brazil has significantly risen over the last decade. Data within the latest Registro Nacional de Estrangeiros (RNE), a document issued by the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice, showed that the number of legal foreign residents has increased from 22,418 in 2002, to 1,466,584 in 2012. Analysts are attributing the figures to Brazil's increasing level of economic stability and government legislation. One possible explanation is the multiple pre-sal discoveries off the south-coast, which have stimulated the Brazilian oil industry and attracted companies from all over the world. “Brazil is the new hub of global petroleum. Anyone who works in the field has to be here now,” Joe Lochridge, a commercial director of an American company that drills and exports Brazilian oil, told O Globo. Yeah, I'm in the right place I believe!!!

mardi, avril 02, 2013

Energy factbook


Currently, 52 per cent of Planet Earth's daily energy consumption is expended on transportation:
  • cars make up 25%
  • planes, trains, trucks and ships 27%. 
That other 27% is globally embracing and incentivising liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the extent that a thousand ship LNG fleet is possible by 2020 and the first LNG-powered commercial flight took place this year. 
Heat and power generation, which in many countries is already fulfilled by natural gas, makes up a further 16% of barril per day consumption.
Up to 68% of global oil needs could be supplanted by natural gas, supply dependent, of course.
Even as oil becomes "too difficult", advances in nanomaterials may soon allow greatly enhanced oil recovery by reducing the adhesion of hydrocarbon molecules to rock, and nanoscale sensors are allowing us to interpret wells in a more acute way then ever before. Still there is around 60% of oil that is till date unextractable though the advances in technology makes it drop every year a little bit more (see figure on the left...

vendredi, mars 15, 2013

US paws over Mongolian mining development

Hello my dear followers. I am trying to find some strength to work this morning and saw this news. While reading it something eluded me: why do US gov bother about the environmental and SOCIAL impact on a mining project in a distant country they have few bonds with (in 2006, it's the 175th largest U.S. export market (at $23 million) and its US 123rd largest source of imports (at $114 million)*), and a company they are not evidently related to (Rio Tinto)? Maybe a 5.5 BUSD/year benefit and an almost ready project... only waiting for a World Bank funding (if they dont get the funding they might as well drop the whole thing). It really looks like some international level heist case. Now reading further about Rio Tinto's activity doesn't help to think the company is a trouble maker on its own. So heist or no heist? See for yourself

Anniversary Suez crisis, Mali conflict and oil price

56 years ago today (8th March) Gamal Adbel Nasser reopened the Suez Canal. Just to crunch some numbers: In 1957, the population of the world stood at 2.87 billion and a barrel of oil topped out at $1.90 per barrel. In 2013, the world’s population was 7.13 billion and this morning Brent Crude was worth $111.15 per barrel.
Talking about conflict, here is a littl map that can tell you a lot of why Europe is (questionably) risking it's soldiers in saharian Africa. As I do not know how long this link will remain, I will paste the article below, but I am not the author:
The untold story of Mali and Oil By TOBIAS VANDERBRUCK for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2013/02/11

Mali and oil are as complex as it can get. Though mineral rich, the landlocked country has no- established- oil or gas reserves worth commercial exploitation. Still, the 'unexplored' aspect of the country lends it gravitas as the potential for oil and gas is very promising and could well be a game changer.
Of course, now, the fire is still on and the atmosphere has a definite air of harried complexity. Before looking into the present conflict, an overview of the oil and gas industry in Mali:

Brief History
The quest for oil in Mali, if you may, began in the early sixties with airborne surveys as the first step in oil exploration. Moderate oil exploration took place in Mali until 1983 when the Taoudeni Basin was declared "burnt out" by the exploration company Esso.
During the seventies and early eighties, more than 9,000 kilometers of exploration through 2D-seismic studies was undertaken in the country. Apart from renewed surveys in Taoudeni basin, there were extensive surveys in Gao Graben basin too. The results were far from satisfactory and when coupled with wide security threats, lack of infrastructure and adverse desert and semi-desert climatic conditions (with temperatures reaching easy levels of 40 to 48 degree celsius or 118 F -ouch), the interest declined. That, however, changed in 2004 with the advent of Baraka Petroleum. Thus, in spite of the ground reality of just five exploratory wells so far, the re-awakened interest in Mali is, in a big way, due to the entry of Baraka Petroleum. With high oil prices and new technical means the bluey oil companies are confident in making a profit when they find oil and gas. Also, an oil pipeline from Chad through Cameroon has increased expectations for a similar pipeline from Mali through Algeria to the market of Europe.
So, there's the promise of potential hydrocarbons in the four sedimentary basins in the country. Though the then Prime Minister of Mali, Cisse Mariam Sidibe, said in 2011 that four countries were 'well advanced' in oil exploration in Mali, it still remains a risk prone venture with only minor oil shows. Basically, it's still pretty much in the realm of assumptions that the country would be able to produce oil and gas for commercial exploitation. On the other hand, the recent studies show geological formations very similar to those oil-producing formations in countries like Algeria, Chad and Sudan.

The four important basins in Mali

Taoudeni Basin
If experts are to be believed, you may hear of this basin very soon. Taoudeni Basin is a major geological formation in West Africa spanning Mauritania, Algeria and Mali. Considered as a high potential basin, it is the largest sedimentary basin in NW Africa. In the eighties, a drilling done here managed to penetrate the sedimentary formations to reach potential petroleum systems. In 1982, a well in the basin, Yarba-1, reportedly showed gas, though the subsequent explorations disputed the oil claims. An evaluation in just five blocks of the basin in 2006 held that the blocks could have about 6 MMboe and over 9 Tcf of oil. The seismic data obtained too showed promise for future explorations. Moreover, the infracambrain black shales along the northern margins, and Proterozoic stromatolite beds are expected to hold large amounts of Hyrdocabons. Geologists have noted similarities between the petroleum rich provinces in Algeria, Niger, Sudan and Libya and the Taoudeni basin. The basin has 14 blocks. Since the basin is relatively unexplored, it has added spice to interest of oil companies.

Nara Trough
Nara Trough is the most western of the four basins and is supposed to be a sedimentary basin of Mesozoic origin (The Mesozoic age has been proved by wood fossils). Still unexplored, the region has been mapped using gravity and aeromagnetic data suggesting sediments as thick as 14km, similar to the Precaspian basin in Kazakhstan. Also, the cetaceous reservoir found here is similar to the one in Chad and the Paleozoic seems more related to Algeria. Nara Trough includes 7 blocks and all of them have been granted to oil companies. The promising signs: competent TOC of three percent in shale, intracratonic rift/sag basin of 14000m magnetic depth and deep structures still to be measured.

Tamesna Basin
Found in the east of Mali, extending into Niger and Algeria. Here, the Creataceous is Niger like, while the Paleozoic is like those in Libya. Though drilled in 1983, there remain dire needs for further studies in the region. Yet, the presence of oil-prone source rocks promises more investigations in the basin.

Gao Graben
Gao Graben, a part of the Central African Rift system extends from Nigeria and Mali in the West to Sudan and Kenya in the East, and while extending into Chad has oil fit for commercial use. One of the wells drilled in this basin turned to be a dry one. Still, 'minor shows' of oil and gas has been found in the basin, and thus, almost 37,500 km2 have come under exploration. (If you are asking, the Creataceous are analogues to those in Chad). Gao Graben has four blocks- 10, 11, 21 and 28. There were minor oil and gas show in the wells. The source rock here is lacustrine Cretaceous shales, while the reservoir rocks are deltaic syn and post. The basin also shows depositional rift sands and fault block traps, all promising signs from an exploratory point of view.

Current Oil Exploration in Mali
If anything Malians have been clever not only in luring the oil companies but also getting guarantees of minimum investment- the present situation, notwithstanding. There is hunger for oil and Mali offered glimpses of it. As a result, there are big and small companies in Mali with the baggage of huge investment in their search for oil and gas.
  •     Baraka: An Australian company which changed its name to Baraka Energy and Resources Limited in 2011. Indeed, this Perth based company is almost solely responsible for putting Mali in the oil map of the world. In 2005, the company signed agreements for five permits for an area totalling 193,200 sq km, stretching from the Algerian border in the East to Mauritania in the west. Progressing fast, in 2008, the company had exploration rights in eight blocks of Taoudeni basin covering an area of more than 272,000 sq km.
  •     Sonatrach- Algeria's national oil company has interest in the Taoudeni basin and explorations in the North of Mali. Sonatarch has promised investment worth US$ 11.5 million in the next four years.
  •     Selier Energy: The Canadian Company has interest in block 18, an area of 19,259 square kilometre in Macina Graben in the Taoudeni basin. Selier Energy has pledged US$ 11.2 million for explorations.
  •     Another Australian company Sphere Investments Ltd., operates in Block 8 in the Taoudeni basin and Block 10 in Gao Graben.
In the past, Malaysian company Markmore Group had also applied for blocks 5 and 6 in the Taoudeni. The other companies with interest in Mali include London based Centric Energy (block 7 and 11), Italian company Eni, Canadian oil and gas company, Africa oil corporation as well as Jersey based Heritage Oil. Canadian company Simba Energy has secured oil exploration leases in block 3. The state owned Norwegian company, Statoil has important stakes in the region, also.

War in Mali
Jihadists who overthrew Gaddhafi raided his weapons depots and joined with Al Qaeda. They are now spreading the Islamic revolution in neighboring countries and the relatively peaceful oil-rich north of Mali was a low hanging fruit for them. Indeed, France's intervention to expel Islamists motivated by security as well as Mali's potential resources.
The present conflict began in the summer of last year with the Tuaregs fighting for an independent country in Northern Mali. It gained traction later on with many Islamic militants joining forces to establish a country governed by sharia laws. In fact, the militants do not want to stop with Mali, but are ambitious for a sprawling Islamic Caliphate. Imposing severe Islamic standards the militants severed communication lines and imposed severe punishments for disobedience, interpreting Islamic laws suiting their needs. Should the world have remained mute to the human rights violations in Northern Mali? Don't forget, there were enriched Uranium nearby. France depends on oil and uranium from neighbouring Nigeria and couldn't possibly tolerate Mali to become another Afghanistan. Moreover France and Mali have had a defence agreement in place for years.
Also, after have its military deployed in Afghanistan for over a decade France understandably will do whatever it takes to prevent another Afghanistan to be created within a 2 hour flight. When Malian president requested help from its former colonial master, France obliged, stressing it would be under the UN mandate. And so the French intervened. (And, thanks to the presence of Canadian oil companies in Mali, Canada was one of the first countries to lend a helping hand France.) Further, on January 16, a gas facility in Algeria was attacked by militants. After four days, more than forty oil workers, mainly foreigners, were killed. Allegedly, the militants were the ones fighting previously in Northern Mali.
And guess what: the oil-rich Taoudeni Basin is located at the north, the area seized by islamists. Neo-colonial agenda or not, the fact is that Timbuktu has been wrestled back. Yes, the Islamists could use the time to regroup in the mountains. After all, Islamist fighters are extremely well equipped and funded. In fact they they are known to offer cash for Malian child-soldiers to join them. According to French Intelligence sources they are funded by the oil-rich nation of Qatar which also funds fundamentalists in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. Moreover, the Qatari influence of Tuareg separatist and other Islamic groups were speculated as early as in June last year. Qatar has vested interest in spreading extreme Islamic Ideology in Africa, not to mention the potential oil and gas resources.

Tomorrow's oil wars started today
As pointed out in previous articles the Arab spring is nothing more than fundamental Islam's hostile takeover of oil resources, with financial support from theocratic oil-rich nations such as Qatar and Iran. (Many analysts, even those based in Mali, haven't taken the oil potential of Mali under consideration (think Canada, France) and so their analysis have remained over Islam and insurgency, only-you need to know.)
Predictably a confrontation with the West over said resources and fundamental cultural differences was bound to happen. This is likely the start of something bigger, a new world paradigm where former colonial powers return not as oppressors but as liberators and protectors of freedom and liberty.


This article was written by Oil-Price.net which provides free information on crude oil.

lundi, mars 04, 2013

Brazil's economic policies seen from abroad

Quite an interesting Monday! A very interesting article from Reuters that, for once, seems to understand the complexity of the economical of a recently industrialized country. See for yourself Reuter's paper or the copy-pasted text from their page below (your choice):

There is talk of investments, and the need for shared prosperity - a favorite topic of Rousseff's. But in these meetings, the conversation inevitably comes back to the severe bottlenecks that have brought the economy back to earth after a historic boom last decade.
"Brazil needs to focus now on issues like productivity and reducing costs, because that's the only way we can grow in a sustainable fashion," said Marcelo Odebrecht, who runs a global conglomerate that bears his family's name.
"I think we've realized that, and the president is moving in that direction," he said in an interview. "That's her focus - looking at these obstacles, and getting Brazil growing again."
The meetings, which have intensified in recent weeks, are a critical part of Rousseff's efforts to convince Brazilian executives to start investing again and help lift the economy following two straight years of disappointing growth.
The chats with well-known figures such as Odebrecht and mining and energy tycoon Eike Batista come as Rousseff, a Marxist guerrilla in the 1970s who evolved into a pragmatic leftist, struggles with a perception that she is unfriendly or even hostile toward the private sector.
Just past the halfway point of her four-year term, the 65-year-old daughter of a Bulgarian aristocrat has indisputably made many enemies in the business world. She has condemned banks for charging high interest rates, intervened heavily in Brazil's exchange rate, and undertaken contentious reforms such as a cut in electricity rates that wiped billions of dollars from the market value of foreign and locally owned companies.
Rousseff has said all her decisions respected existing contracts and laws, and were necessary to try to return Brazil's economy to its glory days of fast growth in the late 2000s.
Her ability to convince business leaders that's true will be key to the rest of her presidency.
Without a rebound in investment, which has steadily fallen since Rousseff has been in office, Brazil will not have the resources to address supply-side bottlenecks in infrastructure and labor that caused the economy to grow just 0.9 percent in 2012.
A persistent economic slump could, in turn, endanger Rousseff's expected bid for re-election next year.
Reuters spoke with several ministers, presidential aides and business leaders who have participated in the meetings, trying to determine why executives have generally not yet heeded Rousseff's call to take risks and let their "animal spirits" flourish - a reference to a term used by the British economist John Maynard Keynes, one of her favorite historical figures.
Business leaders say that Rousseff seems receptive to their feedback and focused on the right problems. But she is also not shy about defending her strong belief that the state must try to shape the economy so that all Brazilians can prosper.
That philosophy has guided Brazil for the past 10 years under Workers' Party rule, and helped make it one of the few countries where inequality fell as the economy grew. Yet it may also explain why some of her decisions have backfired, some say.
"She always challenges these guys - You have to think as a business, but you have to think about Brazil too," said Trade and Industry Minister Fernando Pimentel, one of Rousseff's closest aides, who sits in on some of the meetings.
"You want to earn money, that's natural. But how is everybody going to earn money? How will everybody get better? It can't get better just for one group, only for you," Pimentel said in an interview.
A VERY POPULAR LEADER
Since taking office on New Year's Day in 2011, Brazil's first woman president has earned mostly high marks from voters. Her personal approval rating has hovered in the high-70s, thanks largely to record-low unemployment levels that have been sustained despite the lackluster economic growth.
By cracking down on corruption and embracing some free-market policies such as the privatization of airports and highways, Rousseff has moved beyond the shadow of her popular predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who plucked the career civil servant from relative obscurity and helped her win her first-ever campaign - for the presidency - in 2010.
In a region characterized by charismatic leaders such as Lula and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Rousseff stands out for being gray - or intimidating, depending on the beholder.
Aides say she detests ceremonial aspects of the presidency, eschewing dinners and the schmoozing with congressmen and foreign visitors that Lula excelled at.
She rarely gives news conferences, and she abandoned Twitter almost immediately after she won the election. "Let's chat more often in 2011," her most recent tweet says.
Yet, for the most part, Brazilians see these as the signs of a serious, hard-working leader. Especially among the poor, whose lives have improved dramatically in the past decade, Rousseff is seen as a kind of stern benefactor - the "mother of Brazil," as Lula baptized her in 2010.
In the corporate suites of Sao Paulo, the country's business and financial capital, executives tend to take a dimmer view.
While virtually no one accuses Rousseff of being a hard leftist in the vein of Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales, many say she has taken too heavy-handed a role in managing Brazil's $2.2 trillion economy - and scared off some investors who never quite know what she'll do next.
"I think most investors understand she's not reintroducing old-style socialist ideas. That's not what this is about," said Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a former deputy governor at Brazil's central bank who is now a partner at Tandem Global Partners, a hedge fund in New York.
"What it is about is her belief in central planning, in an active industrial policy, where the government makes critical decisions," he said. "That's not unique to Brazil, by the way ... But it has bothered some people."
A HEAVY HAND
Indeed, there is no big economic sector that Rousseff hasn't touched in a meaningful way in the past two years.
Brazil's banking industry was turned upside down by the central bank's surprise decision, starting in Rousseff's eighth month in office, to slash its benchmark interest rate, which has since fallen from 12.5 percent to an all-time low of 7.25 percent.
Rousseff publicly shamed private-sector banks for not cutting their lending rates fast enough to match the benchmark's declines, calling their actions "inadmissible." Meanwhile, monthly inflation hit its highest level in almost eight years in January, leading some investors to say the cuts went too far.
Rousseff has also been personally involved in the management of the exchange rate, which has oscillated between 1.52 and 2.13 per dollar during her term. The government has tried to alternately strengthen or weaken the currency in unpredictable ways, playing havoc with companies' business plans.
Even the business world's favorite policy tactic - cutting taxes - has generated uncertainty under Rousseff.
Instead of announcing an across-the-board cut, Rousseff has moved sector-by-sector, implementing targeted tax reductions of sometimes uncertain duration for industries like autos or home appliances. Her government has made more than two dozen separate announcements of stimulus packages.
Finally, Rousseff has made some decisions that openly work against the interests of private capital. They include forcing state-run oil giant Petrobras to import gasoline and sell it at a loss, a policy that has jeopardized the company's investment plans and contributed to a 30 percent decline in its publicly traded shares since she took office.
All told, Brazil's main stock index has tumbled 20 percent during Rousseff's presidency - compared to an 18 percent gain in Mexican shares and a 20 percent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the United States during the same period.
The Eurasia Group, a think-tank, said in a note in February that the government's policies and poor communication have led to "a credibility problem with the private sector."
The result: Investment fell 4 percent in 2012, and now stands at just 18.1 percent of gross domestic product.
That gives Brazil the lowest such ratio among big Latin American economies, well behind the rates of 28 percent or so in Peru, Colombia and Chile. As a result, some among Rousseff's economic team fear Brazil's potential economic growth rate may be capped at a mediocre 3 percent or so for years to come.
TRYING HER BEST?
Inside the Palacio do Planalto, Rousseff's modernist palace on the high plains of central Brazil, one word best describes the reaction to the way some investors are behaving: bewilderment.
To hear her ministers and aides tell it, Rousseff has spent much of her presidency explicitly catering to Brazil's business community. In fact, many of the policies for which she has been most criticized were the results of feedback she received from executives, they say.
There is truth to that. In a keynote speech in 2010 prior to the presidential campaign, Armando Monteiro Neto, then the head of Brazil's main industrial lobby group CNI, cited taxes, interest rates, an overvalued real, and high input costs such as electricity as the economy's main problems.
Rousseff has made faster progress on all those issues than any economist or political analyst predicted, although some initiatives - including her recent plan to force electricity costs down - have caused heavy losses for certain companies.
"I think she's done what business people have asked for, and with a certain speed," said Luiza Helena Trajano Rodrigues, the chief executive of retailer Magazine Luiza and another executive who has met frequently with Rousseff.
"Some of the criticism seems a little strange," Rodrigues said in an interview. "She's done a lot of difficult things."
Despite being elected primarily as a figure of continuity, Rousseff has made some pro-business moves that were unthinkable under Lula, who rose in politics as a labor union leader.
She stood up to criticism from the left wing of her Workers' Party to privatize airports in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and elsewhere. She also moved to cut pension benefits for incoming government workers - a decision that will help shore up Brazil's finances, which she has maintained in orderly shape.
One interpretation of Brazil's struggles is that after the last decade's boom lifted some 30 million people from poverty, the policies that worked under Lula had run their course.
Namely, there was no more room to grow the economy by expanding consumer credit - the main engine of growth from 2007 to 2010. So it has fallen to Rousseff to make tough structural reforms that could eventually open up a new era of economic growth - but have generated uncertainty in the short term.
The minister, Pimentel, who has known Rousseff for four decades, said the dire global economy also caused her to become more reformist around the one-year mark of her presidency.
"She clearly saw the bottlenecks that the Brazilian economy had, and has," he said. "She knew we couldn't put off facing these bottlenecks because in a world totally convulsed by the European crisis, we could risk totally losing our competitiveness."
SHARING THE WEALTH
Racing to prevent such a scenario, Rousseff has thrown open her doors to a variety of business leaders from finance, steel, aviation and elsewhere - and has won over some executives who were skeptical of her.
She is mostly listening for new policy ideas and trying to gauge the economy's health. But she is also not shy about asking her guests to part with their money.
For example, in a January 10 meeting with Odebrecht, she asked him to consider investing in upcoming airport concessions, an aide said. In a January 16 sit-down with Batista, whose holdings include oil company OGX, Rousseff urged him to participate in a major round of oil auctions later this year.
Rousseff has also gathered two dozen or so top executives at a time for regular "CEO forums" inside the palace, with the next pow-wow scheduled for March 19.
Still, giving executives face time has been no guarantee of convincing them to invest.
Rousseff's closest contact in the business world is arguably Jorge Gerdau Johannpeter, a 76-year-old steel magnate whom she appointed to lead the Chamber of Management and Competitiveness, another nexus between government and the private sector. Gerdau is often in Brasilia, and sat down with Rousseff for four hours in one meeting in January.
Yet on February 21, the company which he chairs - Gerdau SA, the world's No. 2 maker of steel for builders - said it was cutting its five-year investment plan by 17 percent.
It said it slashed capital spending by 24 percent in the fourth quarter alone, and attributed its decisions to "uncertainties hurting the global economy." A spokeswoman for Gerdau did not respond to multiple requests for an interview.
The malaise in Brazil's private sector explains why Rousseff may be vulnerable to a more market-friendly candidate, such as PSDB party Senator Aecio Neves or Pernambuco state Governor Eduardo Campos, in next year's election.
Yet polls indicate that, for now, Rousseff is popular enough to win easily. Meanwhile, an unexpected 0.5 percent rise in Brazil's overall investment in the fourth quarter of 2012 suggests that some business leaders, too, may be coming around.
Odebrecht, who after meeting Rousseff said his company would invest $8.5 billion this year, up a third from 2012, said executives may learn to live over time with some discomfort.
"People may argue - 'Oh, I would have done this a different way,'" he said. "But the concepts and intentions, I think it's tough to criticize her. What she's doing is right for Brazil."

(Additional reporting by Ana Flor; Editing by Todd Benson, Kieran Murray and Tim Dobbyn)

Reuter's original paper

mardi, février 26, 2013

Noticia brasileira sobre gestão de CO2

O Conselho Empresarial Brasileiro para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CEBDS) lançou em dezembro a publicação Programa de Gestão de Carbono na Cadeia de Valor, em side event na COP-18 (Convenção do Clima), no Qatar. O projeto promoveu, ao longo de 2012, a capacitação de 32 fornecedores da Vale, Votorantim, Banco do Brasil e Itaú para elaboração de inventários de emissão de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE).
De acordo com o Registro Público de Emissões do Brasil, as emissões provenientes de fontes que não são controladas pela empresa (em geral, a cadeia de fornecedores) corresponderam, em 2011, a 88% do total das emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE) das empresas que relatam seus inventários – um crescimento de 12% em relação a 2010.
Dos 32 fornecedores capacitados, 22 apresentaram inventários de emissão de GEE total ou parcialmente às empresas participantes. “O número aponta que o projeto teve um aproveitamento de aproximadamente 70% de fornecedores capacitados e se mostra uma importante ferramenta para as empresas que já perceberam que a maior fonte de emissão de GEE de sua produção está na sua
cadeia de fornecedores”, considera Malta.
A partir da experiência na primeira edição, o programa será replicado em 2013 com, no mínimo, o dobro de empresas participantes. Petrobras, Coca-Cola, Cemig, Votorantim, Vale, Itaú, Ipiranga e TKCSA já confirmaram participação na edição do ano que vem. A expectativa é capacitar cerca de 100 fornecedores dessas companhias na segunda edição do programa.

Confira o documento.

jeudi, février 21, 2013

2013 Energy outlooks

Hey there,
First a little consideration: China fêted its New Year recently, with reasons to celebrate: for the first time it has overtaken the USA in import and export activity, becoming the world’s principal trading nation. Year-on-year growth of 9.3 per cent and trade covenants with a constellation of up-and-coming African and Asian nations have assured that China’s star will continue to wax while others wane, yet this expansion is not assuredly infinite. China is already the world’s largest energy producer, consumer and the third largest importer of oil.
I did like the above quote very much, but it is not from me. Lately I've been too busy to really find time to mash things and offer my points of view (probably a lack of wit didn't help neither :-P). For that reason I'll just make another copy-paste (like the oilfield supervisors love to say whenever they can spot a copy-paste practice on a field job instruction report: "fucking engineer!!"), I'm piled between lab work for one project and preparation to sign the other one... busy busy bee!
Nevertheless, I have some outlooks here, one from BP, along with some nice infografics. Another outlook from the ECEEE, do not ask me why such an acronym but nevertheless it seems interesting enough.


Lastly, I fetched some nice page from the US government, a daily updated US energy prices.

Enjoy!

jeudi, février 14, 2013

What's cooking in Sustainable Brazil

Brazil is one big supporter of wind energy with Bahia state leading the effort (e.g. Salvador's football stadium is self sustainable), watch this nice video:


lundi, février 04, 2013

CO2 NEWS

Between Christmas, New Years Eve and the hot Brazil summer (plus a damn iTunes re-install meaning I had to re-organize all my library O_o) I have not had much chance to post anything new but the news were not very much around neither, seems that everybody was on days off, not just Brazil!! I'm using a rather lazy morning to do my CO2 "fun" fact hunting. Just like Batman if you're the Joker, you never know it's hitting you until (batman) actually does! I do not know if these facts are that fun, or what it really means in 20 years time. But yesterday I came across that sad article about disappearing island due to rising sea level. Seeing your whole World disappearing is surely not what nobody wants to see. Especially since we know that no countries really want to your face poping up the immigration list. This time they cannot send you back home because there is no taxi way for the plane to land on!! These people must feel like that guy landing in a country and showing his passport to hear from the immigration guy that his country disappeared over night, hence his passport is no longer valid. You just loose your citizen origins which is quite a complication if your not physically is the given country. And when you look at some quick slides what do you see? That the major CO2 emission countries are the least impacted!

But it's not all that bad now see what is been done lately to help slow down the process:
 canadians are developping a process to pull CO2 out of thin air. Norway's TCM are launching a CCS test centre network in Mongstad.I can't help noticing and won't stop repeating that the oil companies brought us fossil fuel and "burry us" with it, they will also be the major responsible for redirecting our energy focus towards renewable. Probably through government incentive (it goes without saying). Big Oil, the Good, the Bad and the Ugly all at once!
Started in 2011 and quite popular last quarter of 2012 (maybe thanks to the end of the World) there was a lot of discussions about risks in CCS business resulting in this risk management guidelines from DNV.
Last but not least, norwegian are re-iterating that the reservoirs burried beneath the North are able to hold a lot of CO2, like hundreds of year of an entire country emission. Unfortunately they only said Norway, I wish they'd say China or USA... or even Europe. It's not so bad anyway for a start, hopefully more country will evaluate their own ground capacities.

Ta-da!