dimanche, décembre 16, 2012

World Energy Outlook(s)

hey,
November has been intense in high profile publications. IEA has recently made the presentation of its new book publicly available and BP released his yearly World Energy review that you can found here.What we can take out from these publications is the increase in energy consumption and oil demand despite the increase of the oil price, Renewable energies seem to be stable in growth which is not the best of  news, especially with the global economical environment and the huff-n-puff attitude of the (mostly European) governments. Their lack of commitment towards private companies effort makes nonviable large projects (like in Florange, France, with ArcelorMittal's questionable willing that would have been troubleshooted if European governments really made an effort). Global CCS Institute made an urging publication to call for European CCS funding before other countries take the lead and gets all the technological advance. Combining this with IEA's overview on European gas dependance, it is time to "take our fingers out of our arses" (old rig joke). I kind of grow tired of saying that (well, not really tired ha!) but I know that the effort towards renewable energies will be made by the private sector. One example is that bloomberg article recently talking about solar energy to involve EOR technologies (in a nutshell, these techs helps you to take more oil out of a reservoir). The private sector might become the best (and only?) player in renewable energies.
One "good news" about the reports (BP's) is that the proven oil reserves tend to grow over the years with the ever evolving characterization and exploration technologies. One example is Brazil, which doubled it's proven reserves in 10 years through Pre-Salt discoveries and subsequently Angola if you consider the geological history that the 2 countries share. For a proof look at this gif picture developped by the Nova Scotia museum (image found here):

This gif is very northern hemisphere centric but look at the division between South America and Africa! Right were the Pre-Salt discoveries were made in Brazil used to be Angola, and recent findings proved that theory to be right. Russia has also seen greatly increased it's own reserves over the past decade. Nevertheless IEA projects that increase in consumption will boost the diversification of the energy sources from now to 2035 (guys, less than 25 years now, that only from 1987 to date and if you look back, not much has been created, only improved). While IEA looks at how much we can save by optimizing our production and consumption lines, BP has been looking at 2011's production and consumption. An interesting set of slides is IEA's slide 7 on 2035's projected gas trade flow (gloomy future for Europe) and 2011 gas trade movements (page 29).
To finish in a bright note, BP says the renewable sources are increasing year on year, though IEA says not fast enough and that is echoed by the CCS institute.
The IEA's World Energy Outlook is available on sale for a couple of hundreds of dollars  \o/
The BP statistical review is for free (at least) and you can even do a year on year to try to do some predictions yourself!!

a good read to you then!

Aucun commentaire: